Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 22.491425 24.465210 26.594268 29.072010 31.889562 35.009601 38.747769
2026-01-04 19.267834 21.948661 25.040416 28.910849 33.685580 39.463521 47.111971
2026-01-11 17.193702 20.305455 24.090552 29.123888 35.785360 44.519982 57.238432
2026-01-18 15.454119 18.767866 22.970983 28.840590 37.081104 48.672064 67.097816
2026-01-25 14.159738 17.598575 22.116322 28.696916 38.432326 53.039993 78.314154
2026-02-01 13.158302 16.680984 21.451652 28.664538 39.855197 57.697075 91.249170
2026-02-08 12.299971 15.857847 20.803603 28.529369 41.038410 62.134822 105.138710
2026-02-15 11.564753 15.130601 20.202479 28.359962 42.093307 66.511358 120.388261
2026-02-22 10.924233 14.479277 19.640099 28.162549 43.035565 70.837404 137.173948
2026-03-01 10.402116 13.955549 19.214143 28.119574 44.214144 75.841797 157.721684
2026-03-08 9.939149 13.482756 18.820115 28.073158 45.358964 81.018240 181.306692
2026-03-15 9.720982 13.359769 18.956324 28.935958 48.351733 90.937254 224.635711
2026-03-22 9.258540 12.841751 18.435277 28.613747 49.014530 95.876746 256.441786
2026-03-29 8.887683 12.444763 18.083617 28.564911 50.249261 102.639018 301.096086
2026-04-05 8.604549 12.168255 17.909738 28.825712 52.197516 111.926662 366.611372
2026-04-12 8.255477 11.764569 17.489740 28.570138 52.954307 118.215052 426.722008
2026-04-19 7.955610 11.423435 17.152374 28.439303 53.980100 125.700391 505.554618
2026-04-26 7.695528 11.132830 16.882021 28.412423 55.252903 134.488565 610.530197
2026-05-03 7.438942 10.834059 16.576397 28.281285 56.248949 142.816421 733.696073
2026-05-10 7.195509 10.544841 16.268815 28.115043 57.131893 151.186358 884.549919
2026-05-17 6.964699 10.265704 15.961946 27.920537 57.913266 159.602544 1071.049950
2026-05-24 6.769539 10.038137 15.735704 27.878316 59.109195 170.324291 1345.570207
2026-05-31 6.586031 9.822016 15.517434 27.832571 60.295143 181.719339 1718.284203